U.S. economy at a crossroads: Inflation, trade realignment, and the road ahead

Key Insights

The U.S. economy is facing a critical juncture—balancing inflation pressures, global trade shifts, and cautious optimism about future growth.
Inflation pressures persist, with the cost burden of rising tariff rates expected to fall heavily on consumers.
A potential new stimulus package should be supportive for growth, but inflation and trade uncertainties remain key risks for the U.S. economy.

The U.S. economy is navigating a pivotal moment—caught between persistent inflationary pressures, a shifting global trade landscape, and cautious optimism about future growth. As policymakers, businesses, and consumers adapt to this evolving environment, the choices made today could shape the economic trajectory for years to come.

Inflation remains a stubborn challenge

The headline inflation rate looks set to rise, potentially breaching 4% annually in the coming quarters. A key driver? Tariffs. As the effective tariff rate increases, the cost burden is expected to fall heavily on consumers.

"The headline inflation rate looks set to rise, potentially breaching 4% annually in the coming quarters."

This tariff resurgence, largely attributed to the Trump administration’s strategic pivot, is more than just a fiscal lever. It’s a geopolitical tool aimed at reshaping global trade flows and reducing economic exposure to China. The implications are profound, not just for prices, but for supply chains, corporate strategy, and international relations.

Labor market resilience

Despite inflationary headwinds and the looming spectre of a technical recession, the broader economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The labor market, often a bellwether of economic health, continues to show resilience. Unemployment remains low—characterized by few layoffs and a growing labor supply. Participation rates have surpassed pre‑pandemic levels, and job creation is currently steady.

Key sectors such as health care, education, and hospitality are driving this momentum. Employers, wary of losing hard‑won talent, are holding back on layoffs. Wage growth is moderating, pointing to more sustainable hiring practices. However, early warning signs—such as rising job cuts in federal and service sectors and a declining job leavers‑to‑losers ratio—suggest that workers are becoming more cautious. Small business confidence is also waning, adding a note of caution to the otherwise stable labor narrative.

New stimulus package would be supportive

On the fiscal front, a new stimulus package could be announced before the August congressional recess, which is a key upside risk to the near‑term market outlook. This could include targeted tax credits for middle‑income households and retroactive incentives to spur corporate investment—potentially providing a timely boost to consumer spending and business confidence.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains laser‑focused on inflation. With interest rates holding steady at 4.25%–4.5%, the central bank is signaling a patient, data‑driven approach. Despite market hopes for interest rate cuts, policymakers are likely to prioritize long‑term stability over short‑term relief, waiting for clearer signs of sustained disinflation before making any moves.

Financial markets adjusting to a new global reality

The long‑standing “U.S. exceptionalism” premium—built on strong consumer demand, a dynamic labor market, and supportive fiscal policy—is being reassessed. As other economies begin to close the growth gap, the U.S. dollar is facing renewed scrutiny. Treasury bond yields are also rising, driven by a surge in the term premium amid uncertainty over inflation and fiscal sustainability.

As we look toward 2026, there is growing optimism for a more robust recovery. The potential for fiscal support, a stabilizing labor market, and more normalized economic conditions could pave the way for renewed growth. Yet, risks remain: the inflationary impact of tariffs, potential labor market softening, global supply chain disruptions, and evolving trade relationships all warrant close attention.

Blerina Uruçi Chief U.S. Economist

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